Washington, D.C. — Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday surpassed the previous record for Republican presidential contenders, highlighting the widespread support he garnered in the initial stage of the 2024 nominating process.
Trump secured the endorsement of 51% of Iowa caucus attendees, achieving a significant 30-point lead against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who garnered 21% of support and placed in second place. Nikki Haley, the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, secured a third-place finish with a 19% vote share.
In the history of the modern primary process starting in 1972, the largest margin of victory in a contested GOP campaign in Iowa was achieved by Sen. Bob Dole. He defeated the influential evangelical figure Pat Robertson by a margin of 13 points in the 1988 caucuses. Dole received 37.4% of the votes in the straw poll, while Robertson received 24.6% and George H.W. Bush received 18.6%. Dole withdrew from the contest in March of that year, leading to George H.W. Bush becoming the Republican nominee. Therefore, a decisive win in the Iowa caucuses does not guarantee securing the GOP candidacy. Indeed, the three previous victors of the GOP in Iowa ultimately failed to secure the nomination.
Previous Iowa caucuses have exhibited a high degree of proximity. In 2016, Senator Ted Cruz secured a victory over Trump with a narrow margin of only three points. Trump then emerged victorious in other areas, secured the GOP nominee, and ultimately triumphed in the presidential election. In the 2012 election, Rick Santorum emerged as the winner, defeating Mitt Romney by a narrow margin of only 34 votes out of a total of 121,501 votes cast.
The outcome of Trump’s victory in Iowa on Monday was not unexpected, and neither was the extent of his lead. Pre-election surveys preceding the Iowa caucuses indicated that he was the unequivocal frontrunner poised to secure victory in the initial state. The significant margin by which he won can be attributed to his enhanced popularity among Iowa’s predominantly White, evangelical Republican voters compared to 2016.
Trump continues to be the unequivocal frontrunner among the Republican base on a national scale. According to a recent CBS News/YouGov poll conducted among probable GOP primary voters across the country, 69% expressed their willingness to back Trump if the election were to take place presently, in contrast to 14% for DeSantis and 12% for Haley. The level of support for Trump among potential GOP primary voters around the country has increased in recent months.
